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Updated: Feb 11, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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The Grey Zone Project: Risk-Based Classification of ABCD1 Variants in X-Linked Adrenoleukodystrophy.

Troy C Lund1, Kelly Miettunen2, Yorrick R J Jaspers3

  • 1Department of Pediatrics, Pediatric Blood and Marrow Transplantation and Cellular Therapy, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.

Journal of Inherited Metabolic Disease
|February 9, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Newborn screening for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (ALD) can now better classify ABCD1 variants of uncertain significance. A new risk-stratification framework reduces false positives, easing anxiety and improving patient management.

Keywords:
ABCD1 geneX‐linked adrenoleukodystrophylysophosphatidylcholinenewborn screeningrisk‐stratificationvariants of uncertain significance

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Area of Science:

  • Biochemistry
  • Genetics
  • Pediatrics

Background:

  • Newborn screening (NBS) for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (ALD) identifies boys at risk for adrenal insufficiency (AI) and cerebral ALD (CALD).
  • Variants of uncertain significance (VUS) in ABCD1 present challenges in risk assessment due to borderline biochemical markers and limitations of traditional classification methods.
  • Age-dependent penetrance and broad phenotypic spectrum complicate accurate risk stratification for ALD.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a risk-stratification framework for interpreting ABCD1 VUS identified through NBS.
  • To improve the accuracy of ALD risk assessment by integrating biochemical and clinical data.
  • To reduce false-positive NBS results and enhance personalized patient management.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-based risk-stratification framework prioritizing 95% sensitivity.
  • Incorporated biochemical (LPC(26:0)) and longitudinal clinical data from 1627 controls and 196 ALD patients.
  • Defined three pediatric risk categories: "no ALD" (<110 nmol/L LPC(26:0)), "lower-risk AI/CALD" (110-177 nmol/L), and "at-risk AI/CALD" (>177 nmol/L).

Main Results:

  • Applied the framework to 108 samples with 51 unique ABCD1 VUSs.
  • Reclassified 26 variants to "no ALD," 15 to "lower-risk AI/CALD," and 10 to "at-risk AI/CALD."
  • The framework demonstrated improved specificity in NBS for ALD without compromising sensitivity.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework effectively reclassifies ABCD1 VUS based on biochemical risk profiles.
  • This approach reduces unnecessary referrals, MRI surveillance, and parental anxiety.
  • The evidence-based model offers a scalable solution for variant interpretation and personalized follow-up in ALD and similar disorders.