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Spatial patterns and environmental influences of COVID-19 outbreaks, post-Omicron
Aleksandra Stamper1,2, Rachel E Baker1,2
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America.
Plos One
|February 10, 2026
Summary
Climate influences COVID-19 seasonality, with distinct patterns observed across U.S. latitudes. Higher humidity and temperatures correlate with summer outbreaks, impacting respiratory pathogen dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Respiratory virus seasonality is often linked to climate factors like temperature and humidity.
- The role of climate in COVID-19 seasonality remains unclear due to the influence of novel strain evolution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate spatial variations in COVID-19 outbreak dynamics across the United States over three years.
- To determine the association between climate factors (specific humidity, temperature) and COVID-19 seasonality.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of Emergency Department (ED) data for COVID-19 diagnoses from April 2022 to March 2025.
- Exploration of geographical differences in outbreak patterns across different latitudes.
- Statistical analysis controlling for state-level vaccination status.
Main Results:
- Observed latitude-dependent COVID-19 outbreak patterns: southern states had larger summer peaks, while northern states showed more even or winter-dominant outbreaks.
- Specific humidity and temperature were significantly associated with ED visits for COVID-19.
- Climate's influence persisted even after accounting for vaccination status.
Conclusions:
- Climate plays a significant role in shaping COVID-19 outbreak seasonality in the United States.
- Findings suggest climate factors contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.
- This research provides a basis for understanding COVID-19 as an endemic respiratory virus influenced by climate.
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