Year-to-year variation in weather-epistaxis correlations: a pilot study for multi-year research design

Previous epistaxis studies report conflicting weather correlations, potentially reflecting year-to-year variation rather than geographic differences. Traditional combined analysis approaches may mask temporal correlation patterns, contributing to inconsistent research findings.

To examine annual stability of weather-epistaxis correlations and establish methodology for multi-year studies accounting for temporal variation in environmental health relationships.

Pilot study examining weather correlation stability using 2,201 epistaxis presentations from two UK hospitals (January 2023-December 2024). Weather parameters were analyzed separately for each year. Year-specific and combined analytical approaches were compared.

Weather-epistaxis correlations demonstrated notable year-to-year differences, though none achieved statistical significance. Humidity showed complete directional reversal from positive correlation in 2023 (r= +0.1259) to negative in 2024 (r=-0.1058). Temperature correlations increased in magnitude from weak (r=-0.036) to stronger negative correlation (r=-0.379) and pressure correlations similarly increased (r=-0.080 to r=-0.399). Combined analysis masked this variation, showing weak non-significant correlations. Spring presentations increased 26% year-over-year suggesting potential allergic confounding.

Weather-epistaxis correlations show year-to-year differences that combined analyses may mask, despite lack of statistical significance. Future studies should consider extended observation periods spanning 5-10 years to distinguish relationships from temporal variation.

This study provides evidence that temporal variation may contribute to conflicting findings in epistaxis literature and establishes methodology for environmental health research.