Trends and projections of dermatitis burden (1990-2040): a 2021 global burden of disease analysis

Dermatitis is a major global public health challenge. This study evaluates its burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burden over the next 20 years.

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) included prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs), stratified by year, region, age, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Analyses used estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), inequality indices, decomposition, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling for forecasting.

In 2021, global dermatitis cases reached 241 million (95% UI: 223.3-262.5 million), a 38.8% increase since 1990, but the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) declined to 3,075.1 per 100,000 (EAPC = -0.14). Incident cases were 405 million (95% UI: 356-467 million), with the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) slightly increased to 4,945 per 100,000 (EAPC = 0.04). DALYs totaled 8.18 million (95% UI: 4.85-13.0 million), with the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) declining to 106.2 per 100,000 (EAPC = -0.18). ASPR and ASDR were highest in high-SDI regions and lowest in low-SDI regions; ASIR negatively correlated with SDI. Incidence peaked at ages 5-9 years. The burden was higher in males. A sharp DALYs rise occurred in those ≥65 years, especially in low/low-middle SDI regions. Projections indicate ASIR will slightly increase to 4,966 per 100,000 by 2040, while ASDR declines to 103 per 100,000.

Despite rising absolute cases globally (driven by population growth), declining ASRs suggest diagnostic/therapeutic improvements. Marked disparities persist across SDI levels, age groups, and sexes. Strengthened prevention and resource allocation in low- and middle-income countries are needed to reduce health disparities.