The autophagy-senescence axis as a threshold model of aging and therapeutic targeting

Autophagy and cellular senescence are fundamental stress-response programs that critically shape aging and disease progression, yet their functional relationship has remained paradoxical. Autophagy is traditionally viewed as a cytoprotective process that preserves cellular homeostasis and delays senescence. In contrast, emerging evidence demonstrates that autophagy is also indispensable for the survival and pathological activity of established senescent cells. In this review, we propose a "threshold model" to reconcile these opposing roles and to provide a unified framework linking signal transduction, organelle quality control, and therapeutic intervention. According to this model, autophagy exerts stage-dependent functions governed by stress intensity and disease progression. Below a critical damage threshold, robust autophagic flux suppresses senescence initiation by maintaining mitochondrial integrity, limiting oxidative stress, and preserving proteostasis. Once this threshold is exceeded, autophagy is functionally reprogrammed to sustain the metabolic and biosynthetic demands of senescent cells, including production of the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP). We highlight key signaling nodes that regulate this transition, including mTORC1, AMPK, p53, and p62, as well as spatial and organelle-specific mechanisms such as the TOR-autophagy spatial coupling compartment (TASCC), mitophagy failure, lipophagy blockade, and aberrant nucleophagy. These processes converge on innate immune pathways, notably cGAS-STING and NF-κB signaling, to drive chronic inflammation and tissue dysfunction. Importantly, we extend this mechanistic framework to clinical translation, synthesizing evidence from ongoing trials in cancer, neurodegeneration, metabolic liver disease, and fibrosis. We argue that effective targeting of the autophagy-senescence axis requires precision gerontology, integrating dynamic biomarkers to guide stage-specific interventions-autophagy activation for prevention and autophagy inhibition or senolysis for established disease. This threshold-based perspective provides a rational foundation for next-generation therapeutic strategies targeting aging and age-related disorders.