Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Trifecta Achievement in Robot-Assisted Partial Nephrectomy for
Yuyang Yuan1, Lizhi Zhou1,2, Jiaqing Yang1
1Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Urinary System Diseases, Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Objective:
To develop an interpretable machine learning (ML) model for predicting surgical outcomes in renal hilar tumors and propose a hilar-specific anatomical nephrometry scoring system.
Methods:
A total of 414 patients with renal hilar tumors who underwent robot-assisted partial nephrectomy (RAPN) were included in this study, comprising 304 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University and 110 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, which served as the external validation cohort. To identify predictors of trifecta achievement, we used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and the Boruta algorithm, followed by multivariate logistic regression to identify independent factors. Five ML models were developed and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, decision curve analysis, and precision-recall curves. The generalizability of the model was further validated in external cohort. Finally, we used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret the contribution of each predictor and enhance the model's explainability. Furthermore, based on anatomical features identified through logistic regression, we developed a modified nephrometry scoring system and compared its risk stratification performance with the traditional R.E.N.A.L. (i.e., Radius, Exophytic or endophytic, Nearness, Anterior or posterior, and Location) scoring system.
Results:
Among the 304 patients in the primary cohort, 168 achieved trifecta outcomes. Eight variables were incorporated into the predictive model, with logistic regression model ultimately being selected as the optimal predictive model. It showed robust predictive performance in internal and external validation. SHAP methods identified surgeon, classification of hilar tumor, and radius as the three most significant predictive variables. Compared with the traditional R.E.N.A.L. score, the modified R.E.N.A.L. score demonstrated superior stratification ability for operation time, change in serum creatinine, change in estimated glomerular filtration rate, and trifecta achievement.
Conclusion:
The interpretable ML model accurately predicts trifecta in RAPN for hilar tumors. The modified R.E.N.A.L. score provides refined anatomical stratification and facilitates individualized surgical planning.
