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Upland Methane Sinks Under Climate Change: Global Patterns, Drivers and Trends.
Li Cheng1, Wensheng Xiao1, Josep Peñuelas2
1Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Zhejiang Zhoushan Island Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
Global Change Biology
|February 16, 2026
Summary
Upland soils are vital for absorbing atmospheric methane (CH4), helping mitigate climate change. This study reveals how warming, drought, and CO2 boost this methane sink, while rain and nitrogen reduce it, impacting future climate scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Soil Science
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- Well-aerated upland soils act as a significant biological sink for atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas.
- Understanding the response of this methane sink to global climate change drivers is crucial for climate change mitigation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the response mechanisms of the upland methane sink to various global change factors.
- To model the global distribution patterns and future trends of the soil methane sink under different climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Meta-analysis of 1092 observational data points to assess the impact of warming, precipitation, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen addition on the methane sink.
- Optimization of a methane oxidation model to predict global methane sink dynamics.
Main Results:
- Warming, reduced precipitation, and elevated CO2 strengthened the methane sink, while increased precipitation and nitrogen addition weakened it.
- Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition and precipitation/warming were observed.
- The global upland soil methane sink is estimated at 37 Tg year-1, with a general increasing temporal trend and spatial heterogeneity.
- Future trends vary by climate pathway (SSP1-2.6 shows decline, SSP5-8.5 shows a unimodal trajectory).
Conclusions:
- Upland soil methane sink is sensitive to climate change drivers, with complex interactive effects.
- The global methane sink shows heterogeneity and a general increasing trend, but future trajectories depend on climate scenarios.
- Accurate modeling of the methane sink is essential for predicting atmospheric methane concentrations and informing climate policy.
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