Related Experiment Video
Updated: Feb 17, 2026
07:29
Online Explorative Study on the Learning Uses of Virtual Reality Among Early Adopters
Published on: November 22, 2019
8.6K
Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future
Matthew Barnfield1, Rob Johns2
1School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Political Behavior
|February 16, 2026
Summary
Political expectations are driven by optimism and hope. Optimism influences views on societal outcomes, while hope shapes partisan election beliefs, particularly among highly hopeful individuals.
Area of Science:
- Political Psychology
- Social Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
Background:
- Political behavior is significantly influenced by future expectations.
- Understanding the psychological drivers of these expectations is crucial for political science.
- Distinguishing between optimism and hope offers insight into varied future outlooks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the distinct psychological dispositions of optimism and hope in shaping political expectations.
- To examine their influence on both societal valence expectations and electoral expectations.
- To explore how external information moderates these effects.
Main Methods:
- A representative-sample survey experiment was conducted in the United Kingdom.
- Pre-registered hypotheses were assessed regarding optimism and hope.
- Experimental manipulation involved presenting positive information from polls and expert commentary.
Main Results:
- Optimism was found to positively influence valence expectations regarding societal outcomes.
- Hope was identified as a key driver of partisan bias in electoral expectations.
- Individuals higher in hope exhibited stronger partisan electoral expectations, which were dampened by positive poll and expert information.
Conclusions:
- Optimism shapes general societal outlooks, whereas hope specifically influences partisan electoral beliefs.
- Partisan bias in electoral expectations may stem from a sense of agency in politics, but not societal prospects.
- External information can mitigate the influence of hope on electoral expectations.
More Related Videos
09:07Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
Published on: September 16, 2015
9.5K
05:22Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies
Published on: May 9, 2019
5.8K
Related Concept Videos
01:30Unrealistic Optimism Bias
253
Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
253
01:29Magical Thinking
229
Magical thinking encompasses the belief in assumptions that defy logical reasoning yet appear intuitively convincing. It is a common psychological phenomenon that persists across various cultural and individual contexts. While these assumptions contradict empirical evidence and scientific laws, they often serve meaningful psychological roles in promoting emotional resilience and a sense of control, especially under stress or uncertainty.Thought-Action Fusion and the Law of SimilarityA key...
229
01:12Hindsight Biases
4.3K
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
4.3K
01:01Group Polarization
39.2K
Group polarization is the strengthening of an original group attitude following the discussion of views within a group (Teger & Pruitt, 1967). That is, if a group initially favors a viewpoint, after discussion the group consensus is likely a stronger endorsement of the viewpoint. Conversely, if the group was initially opposed to a viewpoint, group discussion would likely lead to stronger opposition.
39.2K
01:54Attitudes
33.2K
Attitude is our evaluation of a person, an idea, or an object. We have attitudes for many things ranging from products that we might pick up in the supermarket to people around the world to political policies. Typically, attitudes are favorable or unfavorable: positive or negative (Eagly & Chaiken, 1993). And, they have three components: an affective component (feelings), a behavioral component (the effect of the attitude on behavior), and a cognitive component (belief and knowledge;...
33.2K
01:29Self-Efficacy
242
Self-efficacy is the belief in one's capacity to organize and execute actions necessary to manage prospective situations. This belief significantly influences how individuals approach goals, tasks, and challenges across different domains of life.Psychological and Educational ImpactsIndividuals with strong self-efficacy are more resilient in the face of difficulties. They are more likely to adopt effective problem-solving strategies, persist through obstacles, and regulate emotions such as...
242