Mapping modifiable risk factors for incident epilepsy: a large prospective cohort study

The underlying etiology of epilepsy remains incompletely understood. Hence, a systematic and agnostic mapping of modifiable risk factors is essential to our comprehension and prevention of this complex neurological condition.

Prospective cohort study using data from the UK Biobank. Here, we used data from 401,335 UK Biobank non-epileptic adults, of whom 3,600 developed epilepsy throughout 15.4 years of follow-up.

An exposure-wide association study (EWAS) was first conducted, significant variables were further combined to generate composite scores for different domains, and joint associations with epilepsy were evaluated. Mendelian randomisation analyses were used to assess causality, and the potential impact of modifying these risk factors on the epilepsy burden was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF).

First, we conducted EWAS on 196 factors, of these, 27 (13.8%) factors across six domains were significantly associated with epilepsy. Mendelian randomisation analyses further supported a potential causal effect with long-standing disability (β_IVW = 0.077, P_IVW = 0.008). When considered jointly, we estimated that up to 27.7%-51.5% of epilepsy cases could be prevented. The strongest associations were observed for the absence of sedative-hypnotic or opioid use (PAF: 21.1%/11.0%) across all subgroups, which likely reflected underlying comorbidities such as insomnia or chronic pain. A favourable profile of all domains was associated with a lower epilepsy risk even among participants with high genetic risk.

Our findings underscore the necessity of adopting a comprehensive perspective on the cause of epilepsy. Prioritizing risk factors based on age and genetic risk stratification may helpachieve precise and efficient prevention.