Global burden of heart failure due to cardiovascular diseases, 1990-2021 and predictions to 2035 based on GBD 2021

Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 21, 2026

Lumped-Parameter and Finite Element Modeling of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction
09:20

Lumped-Parameter and Finite Element Modeling of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

Published on: February 13, 2021

7.1K

Shuang Liu1, Chen Zhang2, Shizhong Cheng1

  • 1Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, 32 Meijian Road, Quanshan District, Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province 221000, China.

ESC Heart Failure
|February 19, 2026
PubMed

Insights

Heart failure (HF) cases are rising globally, particularly in those over 60. Projections show a substantial increase in HF burden by 2035, highlighting the need for targeted interventions for ischemic heart disease and hypertensive heart disease.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiovascular Epidemiology
  • Global Health Statistics
  • Disease Burden Analysis

Background:

  • Heart failure (HF) presents a significant global health challenge.
  • Understanding HF epidemiology is crucial for public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the epidemiology of heart failure (HF) from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset.
  • To project the future disease burden of HF up to 2035.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data for HF attributable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from 1990-2021.
  • Employed age-period-cohort modeling and Joinpoint regression to analyze trends and effects.
  • Applied Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling for future projections of HF patient numbers and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR).

Main Results:

  • HF risk increases significantly after age 60 and post-2005.
  • While HF due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) prevalence is decreasing, hypertensive heart disease (HHD) shows an upward trend in males.
  • Global HF cases and years lived with disability (YLDs) more than doubled between 1990 and 2021; projections indicate 27.0 million males and 21.5 million females affected by 2035.

Conclusions:

  • The absolute number of HF patients is projected to rise substantially by 2035, indicating a significant CVD-attributable burden.
  • Enhanced focus is required on individuals over 60, especially those with IHD and HHD.
  • Public health strategies must adapt to the evolving HF landscape.
Abstract

Keywords:
Age-period-cohort modelBayesian age-period-cohort modelCardiovascular diseaseGlobal burden of diseasesHeart failure

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