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A general framework for modeling pathogen transmission in co-roosting host communities.

Molly C Simonis1,2, Daniel J Becker1

  • 1School of Biological Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA.

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Summary

Host species relatedness facilitates pathogen invasion among co-roosting wildlife, especially for less transmissible diseases. Roost-level infection prevalence is often highest when hosts are closely related, impacting pathogen spillover dynamics.

Keywords:
batscross‐species transmissiondisease ecologyepidemiological modelsmulti‐host transmissionphylogenetic similarity

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Cross-species pathogen transmission is a significant ecological and public health concern.
  • Wildlife contact, particularly in shared roosting sites, can facilitate pathogen spillover.
  • The influence of host phylogenetic similarity on pathogen transmission dynamics in multi-species roosts remains underexplored.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a generalizable framework for understanding cross-species pathogen transmission among co-roosting species.
  • To investigate the impact of host phylogenetic similarity and contact rates on pathogen invasion and prevalence.
  • To model the net effect on roost-level infection prevalence in systems with varying evolutionary relatedness.

Main Methods:

  • Developed ordinary differential equation models for population and infection dynamics in two and three co-roosting species.
  • Derived conditions for pathogen invasion and parameterized models using Neotropical bat systems.
  • Assessed the role of contact rates and phylogenetic similarity by co-varying transmission rates and phylogenetic distances, considering epidemiological factors.

Main Results:

  • Host relatedness facilitates pathogen invasion, particularly for pathogens with low transmissibility and short infection/immunity/latency periods.
  • Roost-level infection prevalence was generally highest when host species were most closely related.
  • Identified specific parameter spaces where increased prevalence occurred with distantly related hosts, highlighting complex interactions.

Conclusions:

  • Host phylogenetic similarity is a key factor influencing pathogen invasion and prevalence in co-roosting wildlife.
  • The findings are adaptable to other co-roosting systems with directly transmitted, low-virulence pathogens.
  • This research enhances understanding of pathogen spillover mechanisms in ecological communities.