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Risk Modeling and Association Pathways Integrating Psychosocial Factors for Drug Misuse in Adolescents and Young

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Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are a primary risk factor for adolescent and young adult (AYA) drug misuse. Targeted interventions for AYAs with ACEs and those in nightlife settings are crucial for prevention.

Keywords:
Adolescents and young adultsBayesian networkDrug misuseMachine learning

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Public Health
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Early identification of drug misuse in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) is cost-effective but lacks comprehensive risk models.
  • Psychosocial factors significantly influence drug misuse among AYAs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To construct machine learning-based risk models and association pathways for drug misuse in AYAs.
  • To integrate psychosocial factors for predicting and understanding drug misuse.

Main Methods:

  • A cross-sectional study of 1,012 Chinese AYAs (aged 14-35) using machine learning techniques.
  • Identified risk factors using LASSO and Boruta; employed a voting classifier for model training and bootstrapping for testing.
  • Utilized Shapley Additive Explanation and Bayesian Networks to determine factor importance and explore association pathways.

Main Results:

  • 3.85% of participants reported drug misuse. Key risk factors identified include environmental exposure, nightlife work, cognition of drug types, perceived risks, permissive attitudes, low refusal self-efficacy, externalizing behaviors, sensation-seeking, and ACEs.
  • The voting model demonstrated high performance (AUC: 98.11%, Accuracy: 92.63%).
  • Bayesian Network analysis highlighted ACEs as central; individuals with ACEs, working in nightlife, or with low refusal self-efficacy showed >90% probability of drug misuse.

Conclusions:

  • Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are a primary risk factor, significantly impacting social environmental influences on drug misuse.
  • AYAs with ACEs and those employed in nightlife venues require tailored, early intervention strategies to prevent drug misuse.