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Linking Genomic Offset Statistics to the Shape of Selection Gradients.

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    Area of Science:

    • Evolutionary biology
    • Ecology
    • Genetics

    Background:

    • Genomic offset metrics predict population maladaptation under changing climates.
    • Existing metrics assume Gaussian selection gradients, potentially limiting broader application.
    • A negative relationship between genomic offset and local relative fitness is a key assumption.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To generalize genomic offset theory for diverse selection gradients.
    • To introduce new genomic offset measures preserving the fitness-offset relationship.
    • To validate these measures in predicting relative fitness across species.

    Main Methods:

    • Theoretical extension of genomic offset to non-Gaussian selection gradients.
    • Development of generalized genomic offset measures.
    • Simulations to validate theoretical predictions.
    • Common garden experiments with pearl millet, balsam poplar, and red spruce.

    Main Results:

    • The generalized genomic offset measures successfully predict relative fitness.
    • Assuming Gaussian selection gradients is a robust approximation for the studied plant species.
    • The fitness-offset relationship holds across different selection gradient shapes.

    Conclusions:

    • Generalized genomic offset metrics enhance predictions of population maladaptation.
    • These findings support the use of genomic offset for predicting fitness loss in changing environments.
    • The study validates the robustness of Gaussian selection gradient approximations in certain contexts.