Zoning of Integrated Quality Regions for Alpinia officinarum Hance Based on a Multi-Model Evaluation System

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of medicinal plant distributions and their quality responses under climate change is essential for formulating forward-looking conservation and utilization strategies. In response to the increasing depletion of wild resources of Alpinia officinarum Hance, one of the 'Ten Major Guangdong Medicinal Materials', this study developed an integrated modeling platform incorporating nine algorithms. These included generalized linear models, machine learning techniques, and a MaxEnt model optimized using ENMeval (Regularization Multiplier (RM) = 3, Feature Class (FC) = LQH). The platform was applied to simulate habitat suitability evolution under current climatic conditions (1970-2000) and for two future periods (2050s: 2041-2060; 2090s: 2081-2100) across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Furthermore, Co-kriging interpolation was coupled to conduct a comprehensive quality zoning based on the dual "ecological-chemical" dimension. Analysis of key environmental factors revealed that the distribution of A. officinarum is primarily constrained by hydrothermal conditions, with a suitable annual temperature ranges from 19.96 to 29.05 °C and a dry-season precipitation requirement between 56.64 and 185.65 mm. Model projections indicate that future warming does not promote habitat expansion; instead, it drives a latitudinal shift in the suitability centroid toward lower latitudes. The cumulative effects of different emission pathways vary markedly: the high-emission scenario (SSP585) triggers severe habitat contraction by the 2090s, while habitat loss under the SSP370 scenario remains relatively manageable. By overlaying the spatially heterogeneous distribution of galangin, this study delineated southeastern Yunnan, southeastern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and northern Hainan as core "integrated quality regions". These findings not only reveal the sensitivity and vulnerability of A. officinarum Hance to climate change but also provide spatially explicit guidance for in situ germplasm conservation and the selection of high-quality cultivation bases.