Climate-Driven Aflatoxin M1 Risks in Serbia: Implications for Integrated Food Safety Management Along the Dairy
Dragan R Milićević1, Božidar Udovički2, Ana Šuša3
1Institute of Meat Hygiene and Technology, Kaćanskog 13, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.
Toxins
|February 26, 2026
Summary
Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in Serbian milk is a persistent food safety issue, exacerbated by climate change. Risk management and prioritization frameworks are needed to protect vulnerable groups and align with EU standards.
Area of Science:
- Food Safety
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
Background:
- Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) is a carcinogenic milk contaminant posing a significant food safety concern in Serbia.
- Climate change exacerbates AFM1 contamination risks, particularly during drought years and winter months.
- National research from 2012-2024 analyzed over 30,000 milk and dairy samples.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review and evaluate AFM1 contamination levels and associated public health risks in Serbia.
- To assess the need for structured risk ranking and prioritization frameworks for AFM1 management.
- To identify vulnerable populations and inform food safety governance.
Main Methods:
- Systematic analysis of Serbian studies on AFM1 occurrence, dietary exposure, and health risk estimates.
- Review of multi-year studies on climate-driven aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) contamination in feed as a source of AFM1.
- Evaluation of current margin of exposure (MOE) values and comparison with EU limits.
Main Results:
- Persistent AFM1 contamination was found, frequently exceeding the EU maximum limit of 0.05 µg/kg.
- Climate-driven AFB1 contamination in feed is a recurring source of AFM1 in milk.
- Children and students are the most vulnerable groups, with the highest estimated daily intake.
- Current MOE values are within acceptable limits, but contamination persistence necessitates proactive management.
Conclusions:
- Structured risk prioritization frameworks, aligned with FAO and EFSA methodologies, are essential for effective food safety management in Serbia.
- Implementing these frameworks will enhance monitoring, protect high-risk populations, and support alignment with EU standards.
- Proactive risk management is crucial to reduce the health burden of AFM1 in the dairy sector and strengthen food safety governance.
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