Global Burden of Encephalitis from 1990 to 2021, Its Attributable Risk Factors, and Projections to 2045

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Global Health
• Neurology

Background:

• Encephalitis poses a significant and evolving global health threat.
• Understanding its spatiotemporal patterns and risk factors is crucial for effective public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the global, regional, and national burden of encephalitis.
• To identify attributable risk factors and project future trends.
• To inform targeted prevention and treatment programs.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data for incidence, mortality, and DALYs.
• Employed Joinpoint regression for analyzing age-standardized rates (ASRs) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models for future projections.
• Conducted decomposition analysis to assess demographic contributions to the disease burden.

Main Results:

• Global encephalitis burden has declined over 30 years, but ASR reduction plateaued between 2012-2015.
• Projections indicate ASRs will stabilize from 2021-2045, with a disproportionate burden in low-medium Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions.
• Children and the elderly are high-risk groups; low birth weight is a key neonatal risk factor.

Conclusions:

• The decline in encephalitis ASRs reached an inflection point, possibly due to emerging infectious or autoimmune causes.
• The burden concentration in low-medium SDI areas highlights links to tropical distribution and healthcare inequities.
• Targeted interventions including vaccination, enhanced prenatal care, and smoke-free environments are vital for future mitigation.