Estimating the climate impacts of future paper production and recycling with life cycle assessment

This study aims to quantify the potential future climate change impacts associated with paper and cardboard production and recycling in Europe using prospective life cycle assessment, which is then used to quantify the associated substitutional values. The study models virgin and recycled paper and cardboard production, in a novel way. Direct changes are modelled as gradual annual reductions in water, raw materials, energy, and chemical use. Indirect changes are modelled using the premise package, which updates background processes based on Integrated Assessment Models and Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Average paper markets are established for current conditions and projected to 2050, which may be used to quantify the substitutional value of paper recycling. The climate change impacts of paper and cardboard production are projected to decrease as energy and material systems become more renewable. Further, the substitutional value of recycling paper is expected to decrease over time. The study finds that the energy system significantly influences the results. The climate change impacts are projected to change over time from 0.5 to 1.6 kg CO₂-eq./kg paper or cardboard produced in 2022 to, respectively, 0.4 to 1.7 and 0.3 to -1.0 kg CO₂-eq./kg paper or cardboard produced in 2050, depending on the specific projection. Recycling of paper materials is projected to remain a slight climate benefit, albeit the size of the benefit may change over time. This is influenced by the composition of the substituted market and the transition to renewable energy. Data transparency and consistency challenges affected the comparability of the paper processes, and the consistency of future projections, as accurate future projections require detailed process data and careful selection of prospective scenarios. The emission factor for newsprint recycling in 2022 is a small climate saving of -0.1 kg CO₂-eq/kg newsprint, while most of the emission factors projected to 2050 show larger climate benefits (-0.2 to -0.3 kg CO₂-eq/kg paper).