Source-oriented probabilistic risk assessment and priority control factors of potentially harmful elements in fine...

Pollution of potentially harmful elements (PHEs) poses a significant challenge to an urban environment. Fine roadway dust (FRD, particle size < 63 µm) often accumulates elevated concentrations of PHEs, posing a threat to the ecological environment and human health, while also curbing urban sustainable development. In this study, a source-receptor model combined with one-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation (1-D MCS) and two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation (2-D MCS) was used to assess the probabilistic eco-health risks of PHEs in FRD from Xingtai, a representative industrial city in northern China. The average concentrations of Ba, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn exceeded the background values of the local soils, and the overall degree of contamination was moderate. The PHEs originated from traffic, industrial, and natural sources, accounting for 44.2 %, 37.8 %, and 18.0 % of the total sources of PHEs, respectively. The overall eco-risk of PHEs was relatively low, whereas PHEs could pose a certain non-carcinogenic risk to children. The cancer risks to all populations, especially children, cannot be ignored. Cr was a priority pollutant, and industrial sources were the primary control targets. This study recommended the threshold values of exposure concentrations using the 2-D MCS model. The results showed that the cancer risk to children exceeded the safety threshold at Cr levels higher than 62.67 mg/kg, and Pb could pose a potential ecological risk to the environment at concentrations reaching 174.99 mg/kg. This study provides scientific guidance for pollution control and risk management of PHEs in industrial cities worldwide.