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Risk Tools Predict Recidivism for Men With Low Intellectual Ability and a History of Sexual Offending.

R Karl Hanson1,2, Kelly M Babchishin1, Kelsey May1

  • 1Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada.

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Summary

Risk assessment tools show moderate accuracy for men with low intellectual ability who sexually offend. Specific tools like ARMIDILO-S perform best, and staff reports are more effective than official records for measuring recidivism.

Keywords:
intellectual development disorderlow intellectual abilitymeta-analysisrisk assessmentsexual offending

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Criminology
  • Intellectual Disability Research

Background:

  • Standardized risk assessments are crucial for evidence-based responses to criminal behavior, including sexual offending.
  • Many risk assessment tools exist but were developed using undifferentiated groups, questioning their utility for subgroups like individuals with low intellectual ability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To meta-analytically assess the predictive accuracy of risk tools for crime and violence in men with low intellectual ability and a history of sexual offending.
  • To examine age as a predictor of recidivism in this population.

Main Methods:

  • Meta-analysis of 15 distinct samples (N=923).
  • Evaluated predictive accuracy (discrimination) of various risk assessment instruments.
  • Examined recidivism measured by staff reports versus official records.

Main Results:

  • Age demonstrated moderate to large effects on sexual, violent, and general recidivism.
  • Overall predictive accuracy of risk instruments was moderate, comparable to other populations.
  • ARMIDILO-S showed the highest predictive accuracy among the measures studied.
  • Staff reports yielded larger effect sizes for recidivism than official records.

Conclusions:

  • Existing risk assessment tools are supported for use with men with low intellectual ability.
  • Staff reports are preferable to official records for studies on sexual recidivism in this group.