Sexual Recidivism Norms by CPORT Score: Developing Absolute and Relative Rate Estimates

Area of Science:

• Forensic Psychology
• Criminology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• Child sexual abuse and exploitation material (CSAEM) offenses pose significant societal risks.
• Accurate risk assessment tools are crucial for managing offenders and preventing recidivism.
• The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is utilized in offender management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide normative data for the CPORT by aggregating data from multiple international samples.
• To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the CPORT for sexual recidivism.
• To establish percentile norms for the CPORT to aid in risk communication.

Main Methods:

• Meta-analysis of individual-level data from six routine samples (N = 956) of men adjudicated for CSAEM offenses.
• Analysis of data from Canada, Europe, and the United Kingdom.
• Calculation of predictive accuracy (AUCs) and risk ratios associated with CPORT scores.

Main Results:

• The CPORT demonstrated stable predictive accuracy for any sexual recidivism (AUC = .728) and CSAEM-specific recidivism (AUC = .713).
• Recidivism rates increased with CPORT scores, ranging from 3% to 41% for any sexual reoffending.
• A CPORT score of 5 indicated a fivefold increase in reoffending risk compared to the median score (CPORT = 2).

Conclusions:

• The derived CPORT norms facilitate improved risk communication among professionals.
• The findings support the alignment of CPORT use with the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model in offender management.
• Normative data enhance the CPORT's utility in assessing and managing individuals convicted of CSAEM offenses.