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  3. Effects Of Initial Experiences On Risky Choice.
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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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Effects of Initial Experiences on Risky Choice.

Elliot A Ludvig1, Neil McMillan2,3, Jeffrey Matthew Pisklak2

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.

Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology (2006)
|March 4, 2026

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Risk preferences are influenced by early experiences. While learning outcome probabilities is continuously updated, the relative value of choices shows a lasting primacy effect, impacting decisions.

Keywords:
decisions from experienceextreme-outcome effectgamblingprimacy effectsrelative valuerisky choice

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Decision science
  • Neuroeconomics

Background:

  • Biases in learning and memory, such as the primacy effect, influence risky decision-making.
  • The primacy effect describes how initial experiences disproportionately impact later memory and choices.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate potential primacy effects in decision-making related to outcome probability and relative value.
  • To differentiate the impact of early versus later experiences on learning about risky options.

Main Methods:

  • Three experiments (N=772) were conducted, manipulating the order of experiencing different outcome probabilities and relative values.
  • The first two experiments varied the order of outcome probabilities (N=382).
  • The third experiment manipulated the introduction of a wildcard option with varying outcome extremeness (N=390).

Main Results:

  • No primacy effects were observed for learning outcome probabilities across the first two experiments.
  • In the third experiment, the early introduction of a more-extreme wildcard option influenced choices.
  • Introducing the same extreme wildcard later in the session did not affect choices, indicating a lasting primacy effect for relative value.

Conclusions:

  • Learning about outcome probabilities in risky choices is continuously updated.
  • Risk preferences influenced by the relative value of options exhibit a lasting primacy effect, with early experiences having a disproportionate impact.