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Long-run electricity consumption in computing: Exponential growth followed by stabilization due to efficiency gains
Ricardo Pinto1, Paul E Brockway2, Tiago Domingos1
1MARETEC-Marine, Environment and Technology Center, LARSyS - Laboratory for Robotics and Engineering Systems, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal.
Iscience
|March 5, 2026
Summary
Concerns about future electricity demand from information and communication technologies (ICT) may be overstated. Long-run analysis shows ICT electricity use stabilized due to efficiency gains, offsetting increased information processing.
Area of Science:
- Energy research
- Computer science
- Environmental science
Background:
- Published projections indicate information and communication technologies (ICT) could reach 20% of global electricity use by 2030.
- These projections often rely on limited historical data (<5 years).
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct the first global long-run analysis (1975-2022) of ICT electricity consumption, processed information, and efficiency.
- To assess the accuracy of future electricity demand projections for computing.
Main Methods:
- Jointly estimated electricity consumption, processed information, and efficiency over a 47-year period.
- Analyzed trends from 1975 to 2022, focusing on the share of computing devices in global electricity use.
Main Results:
- Electricity consumption, processed information, and efficiency increased by 4, 11, and 7 orders of magnitude, respectively.
- The share of computing devices in global electricity consumption peaked at 2.5% in 2013.
- This share stabilized at 1.8% since 2018 due to efficiency gains and device shifts (desktops to laptops to smartphones).
Conclusions:
- Future electricity demand from computing may be less concerning than previously projected.
- Efficiency improvements in large data centers and the proliferation of mobile devices are key factors in stabilizing electricity use.
- Long-term analysis provides a more accurate perspective on ICT's energy footprint.
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