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A Simulation Approach for the Spatial Testing of Migration Theories.

Micol Matilde Morellini1,2,3

  • 1Nuffield College, University of Oxford, New Road, OX1 1NF, Oxford, UK. micol.morellini@nuffield.ox.ac.uk.

European Journal of Population = Revue Europeenne De Demographie
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Summary

This study introduces a new method to evaluate migration theories by assessing their spatial accuracy, not just explanatory power. Findings show current theories, despite good fit, struggle to represent real-world migration patterns, highlighting limitations in spatial representation.

Keywords:
Migration systemsMigration theoryModel evaluationSimulation methodsSpatial analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Geography
  • Economics

Background:

  • Migration research traditionally separates drivers (factors influencing flows) from patterns (spatial organization).
  • Existing migration theories often prioritize explanatory power over spatial accuracy in evaluations.
  • This gap limits a comprehensive understanding of migration dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and validate a simulation-based procedure for assessing the spatial accuracy of migration theories.
  • To evaluate two prominent migration theories, the gravity model and migration systems theory, using this new procedure.
  • To highlight the importance of spatial accuracy in migration theory evaluation.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a simulation-based procedure to generate synthetic migration systems based on theoretical predictions.
  • Compared synthetic systems with observed origin-destination migration flows to assess spatial accuracy.
  • Applied the procedure to intra-European migration data (2002-2021).

Main Results:

  • Both the gravity model and migration systems theory demonstrated high explanatory power but limited spatial accuracy.
  • Migration systems theory outperformed the gravity model in overall fit.
  • Neither theory accurately reproduced key spatial features like flow reciprocity and specific national migration profiles in Europe.

Conclusions:

  • Strong statistical fit does not guarantee accurate spatial representation in migration theories.
  • The proposed simulation-based procedure offers a valuable tool for a more integrated evaluation of migration theories.
  • Further research should focus on refining theories to better capture the spatial dimensions of migration.