Multiple work demands and early retirement intention in Germany: A cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis

The present study examines the association between (multiple) physical and psychosocial work demands and the preference for early retirement among older German employees. The analyses are based on data from five waves (2015-2023) of the BAuA-Working Time Survey, including 32,686 person-year observations. The dependent variable is a binary indicator reflecting preference for early retirement versus statutory or later retirement. Cross-sectional analyses apply linear probability models (LPM) per wave, while longitudinal effects are assessed using pooled OLS (POLS), random-effects (RE), and fixed-effects (FE) estimators. Robustness checks include controls for health and job satisfaction.Cross-sectional models show positive and mostly significant associations between both physical and psychosocial work demands with early retirement preference. Psychosocial demands, particularly workload pressure and emotional demands, are consistently strong predictors. In longitudinal FE analysis, multiple psychosocial work demands remain meaningful and significant.The findings underscore the importance of multiple simultaneous psychosocial job demands, rather than only focusing on isolated working conditions, in shaping early retirement preferences. Despite modest coefficient sizes, these results based on retirement intentions (not actual exit decisions) highlight the necessity of a life-course perspective and targeted interventions to promote sustainable working lives.