Cold hardiness dynamics predict budbreak and associated low-temperature threats in grapevine

Area of Science:

• Plant Physiology
• Agricultural Meteorology
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Temperate perennial plants require cold hardiness for winter survival and timely budbreak in spring.
• Predicting budbreak and assessing low-temperature damage risk are crucial for agriculture.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate if a cold hardiness model can predict grapevine budbreak timing.
• To assess the model's accuracy using historical temperature data across diverse locations.

Main Methods:

• Applied a published cold hardiness model to grapevine varieties (Vitis spp.) using historical temperature records.
• Extracted budbreak dates based on predicted cold hardiness thresholds from existing literature.
• Incorporated estimated cold damage delays to refine predictions.

Main Results:

• The cold hardiness model provided good budbreak predictions (RMSE = 7.3d) without specific budbreak training.
• Predictions improved slightly (RMSE = 7.2d) when accounting for cold damage delays.
• Warming trends showed varied impacts on freeze damage risk and budbreak timing, depending on mean dormant season temperatures.

Conclusions:

• Cold hardiness dynamics are vital for accurate spring phenological modeling.
• The model offers improved budbreak predictions and insights into low-temperature damage potential throughout the dormant season.
• This approach aids in understanding climate change impacts on perennial plant phenology.