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Reliable Method for Assessing Seed Germination, Dormancy, and Mortality under Field Conditions
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Modeling Phenotypic Trait Variation and Plasticity in Elymus elymoides to Guide Climate-Informed Seed Transfer.

Francis F Kilkenny1, Jeffrey E Ott1, Elizabeth A Leger2

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This study developed advanced seed transfer models for bottlebrush squirreltail grass, improving seed sourcing for ecological restoration by accounting for climate-driven traits and plasticity. These models enhance restoration success in changing climates.

Keywords:
common garden studyfixed‐boundary seed zonesfocal‐point seed transfer modelsmultivariate regression tree modelingrandom forestsrestoration seed sourcing

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Plant Science

Background:

  • Effective ecological restoration relies on climate-matched seed sourcing.
  • Standard seed transfer models lack flexibility and may miss complex trait-climate associations.
  • Understanding climate-associated phenotypic variation is crucial for seed sourcing.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To characterize climate-associated variation in traits for *Elymus elymoides* (bottlebrush squirreltail).
  • To develop novel, flexible seed transfer models (fixed-boundary and focal-point) using advanced methods.
  • To create practical seed zone recommendations for restoration in the Intermountain Region.

Main Methods:

  • Common garden experiments with 98 *Elymus elymoides* source populations.
  • Analysis of phenotypic variation in growth, reproduction, morphology, phenology, and survival.
  • Development of seed transfer models using regression trees and random forests.

Main Results:

  • Identified distinct trait-climate associations, with larger plants and later flowering from cooler/wetter or milder climates.
  • Populations from milder climates showed higher overall trait plasticity.
  • Developed 13 hierarchical seed zones, with separate models for two subspecies groups, capturing complex associations.

Conclusions:

  • Novel modeling approaches provide more precise focal-point seed transfer zones than standard methods.
  • The hierarchical structure aids in balancing restoration risk and practical constraints.
  • Findings underscore the importance of climate-trait associations for seed sourcing in a changing global climate.