Developmental Stage-Specific Responses to Extreme Climatic Events and Environmental Variability in Great Tit
Devi Satarkar1, David López-Idiáquez1, Irem Sepil1
1Edward Grey Institute of Field Ornithology, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Global Change Biology
|March 11, 2026
Summary
Climate change impacts wild great tits (Parus major) differently across developmental stages. Extreme cold events harm young nestlings, while heavy rain affects older ones, with combined extremes significantly reducing fledging mass.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and evolutionary biology
- Climate change biology
- Avian population dynamics
Background:
- Climate change is altering average conditions and increasing climate variability.
- Impacts of extreme climatic events (ECEs) on natural populations are less understood than average changes.
- Wild avian populations face challenges from unpredictable weather patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the differential sensitivity of wild great tit (Parus major) developmental stages to ECEs.
- To quantify the effects of ECEs, alone and in combination with average conditions, on fledging mass and survival.
- To explore the role of birth timing and phenotypic plasticity in mitigating climate change impacts.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 60 years of life-history data from over 83,000 great tits.
- Analyzed historical daily climate records to identify ECEs.
- Correlated climate data with individual bird development and survival metrics.
Main Results:
- Nestling great tits exhibit stage-specific sensitivity to ECEs; early cold extremes reduce fledging mass, while later rain events have a greater impact.
- Combined extreme heat and heavy rainfall during early development can reduce fledging mass by up to 27%.
- Late-season broods exposed to hot ECEs fledge significantly lighter nestlings (up to 35% lighter).
Conclusions:
- Developmental stage-specific responses to ECEs are critical for understanding avian population dynamics under climate change.
- Phenotypic plasticity, such as earlier laying dates, may offer some benefits but can also increase susceptibility to certain extremes.
- Increasing frequency and severity of ECEs pose significant threats to wild bird populations, necessitating further research into adaptive strategies.
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