Modelling Aedes albopictus management, incorporating immigration and bi-directional Wolbachia interactions

Aedes albopictus mosquitoes are competent vectors for the spread of at least 24 different arboviruses, including dengue, Ross River, and Japanese encephalitis viruses. However, they remain less studied than their more urban cousins, Aedes aegypti. We model an incompatible insect technique (IIT) strategy for mosquito control, with bi-directional incompatibility between two strains of Wolbachia (wAlbA/wAlbB  $\times$ ARwP) and age-based cytoplasmic incompatibility decay in a well-mixed population. We include mosquito immigration to explore potential reversibility, an important consideration in bi-directional IIT control programs. We also explore the establishment probability after female contamination of an artificially-infected Wolbachia mosquito strain, consider the suppression dynamics and probability of mosquito management success for different release strategies, and determine a corresponding cost proxy for release (numbers of mosquitoes released). We found an establishment probability threshold of 40% in the absence of mating preferences, though this threshold needs validation in future field and laboratory experiments. We found differences in suppression success between release cessation and 6 months later for different immigration rates. There are similar short-term costs with differences in medium- and longer-term costs between release strategies. Our model suggests bi-directional IIT control programs are reversible with low amounts of wild-type immigration. This work demonstrates opportunities to optimise the suppression of these medically important mosquitoes.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10340-026-02030-4.