[Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Budgets and Pressure of Carbon Neutrality in Jiangsu Province]

To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, it is necessary to comprehensively and accurately check the regional carbon budget and its evolution characteristics. Accordingly, taking Jiangsu Province as an example, this study constructed a carbon budget accounting system from the perspective of the "natural-human" binary structure. The major anthropogenic carbon emission items, carbon sources/sinks of the ecosystem, and the changes of the carbon storage in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020 were calculated, and the pressure of carbon neutrality was evaluated entirely. The results showed that during 2000-2020, the anthropogenic carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province increased from 54.380 6 to 233.841 9 million tons. Carbon emissions associated with industrial energy consumption consistently dominated, accounting for 61% to 72% of total emissions. Emissions from industrial production processes represented the second-largest source, with a fluctuating upward trend in its proportion. Moreover, 11.25% of the land in Jiangsu Province was transferred, resulting in a reduction of ecosystem carbon storage by 2.638 9 million tons. Although the ecosystems functioned as a carbon sink overall, with an annual average carbon sequestration of 6.63 million tons, this capacity has shown fluctuations and a declining trend in recent years. As a whole, Jiangsu Province had high carbon emissions coupled with relatively low carbon sequestration capacity, with carbon sinks offsetting only approximately 4.17% of anthropogenic emissions during the study period, which demonstrates high pressure on realizing the goal of carbon neutrality.