[Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Service Value in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle...

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecosystem service value（ESV）is critical for promoting regional ecological civilization and sustainable development. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle as the study area，we systematically investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV，analyzed factors influencing spatial heterogeneity，and explored complex interactions among these drivers using land use data from 2000，2005，2010，2016，and 2022. We employed the equivalent factor method，spatial autocorrelation analysis，and interpretable machine learning（XGBoost-SHAP）approaches. Our results indicate that：① ESV exhibited a continuous upward trend from 2000 to 2022. ② ESV showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation，characterized by a spatial pattern of "low core-high periphery，" centering around urban cores. ③ Natural geographical factors primarily drove ESV variations，with elevation and population density identified as critical determinants. Notably，we observed significant nonlinear interactions between elevation and temperature，as well as between elevation and population density. These findings offer scientific insights into ecological conservation and sustainable policy-making in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle.