GHG emissions from recent peat forest disturbances: A driver-specific analysis across Indonesia, Peru, and DRC

Consistent data on tropical peat forest disturbances and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain limited. We quantified and compared driver-specific GHG emissions from aboveground biomass (AGB) loss, peat decomposition and fire from peat forest disturbances in Indonesia, Peru, and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over 2020-2021. Direct drivers were identified through visual interpretation of Planet (4.77 m) and Sentinel-2A (10 m) imagery for 1000 randomly sampled disturbance events per country. We estimated CO₂ emissions from AGB loss using pre-disturbance data from the Climate Change Initiative Biomass product. Emissions (CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) from peat decomposition were calculated using driver-specific emission factors. We computed emissions from fire applying refined values for prescribed peat fires. Large-scale agriculture was the primary driver of emissions in Indonesia (48%), followed by smallholder agriculture (26%), and grassland (10%). Conversely, smallholder agriculture was the dominant driver of emissions in Peru (59%) and DRC (94%). Logging contributed to emissions across all countries, while mining, road development, and river meandering were relevant mainly in Indonesia and Peru; windstorms played a minor role in Peru. Fire accounted for half of emissions and was predominantly linked to agriculture (80% in Indonesia, 75% in Peru, and 95% in DRC). Overall, CO₂ was the dominant GHG (72%), followed by CH₄ (20%) and N₂O (8%). Across countries, combined emissions from AGB loss, peat decomposition and fire in the disturbance year (2020) exceeded post-disturbance peat decomposition emissions in 2021 by 19-20 times. Nevertheless, cumulative peat decomposition over two decades will eventually reach the massive emissions released from all sources in the disturbance year. Our analysis provides the first systematic cross-country comparison of driver-specific GHG emissions in tropical peat forests, underscoring the major role of fire associated with agricultural expansion and the long-term importance of post-disturbance peat decomposition. These findings offer key insights to inform (inter) national emission reduction policies and strengthen reporting of peat forest emissions under frameworks such as the Paris Agreement.