Analysis of human risk assessment due to arsenic exposure through cow milk using multivariate and Monte Carlo...

This study assessed arsenic (As) contamination in cow milk across eight locations (A-H) in Sahibganj, Jharkhand, India, where the average As concentration in livestock drinking water was 0.44 mg/L. Milk As levels ranged from BDL (Location H, analyzed as zero) to 0.026 mg/kg (Location A), showing strong correlations with water (r = 0.983, p < 0.05) and fodder (r = 0.970, p < 0.05) concentrations. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the first three principal components (PC) collectively explained 87.53% of total variance, effectively capturing the major trends in the data. PC1, explaining 65.97% of the variance, was primarily loaded with high positive contributions from arsenic in water (0.392), fodder (0.403), and soil (0.410). Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment, performed using a Monte Carlo simulation, identified significant health threats. Deterministic non-carcinogenic risks (HQ) peaked at Location A for age groups 0-3 and 3-12 years (HQ > 1), while the other locations generally showed lower HQ values across all age groups. The probabilistic 95th percentile HQ also exceeded 1 for age groups 0-3 and 3-12 at Location A and for the 0-3 years age group at Locations B and C. Similarly, the deterministic carcinogenic risk (CR) reached 8.69E-04 for the 0-3 years age group at Location A, exceeding the USEPA limit (E-04-E-06), with the probabilistic 95th percentile at 1.15E-03; the lowest CR was 4.77E-06 at Location E for the 36-60 age group. These findings underscore a critical public health concern, particularly for vulnerable populations, necessitating urgent mitigation strategies to reduce As exposure through milk consumption in the region.