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Field-Based Thermal Physiology Assay: Cold Shock Recovery under Ambient Conditions
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Environmental Stochasticity Drives Adaptation to Cooler Thermal Optima in Competition.
Abdulrahaman Lawal Suleiman1,2, Pietro Landi3,4, Cang Hui3,4,5
1Biomathematics Unit, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7602, South Africa. abdulrahamanlawals@gmail.com.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|March 18, 2026
Summary
Environmental noise can alter ectotherm evolution. Stochasticity broadens thermal performance curves (TPCs) and shifts optima leftward, favoring cooler temperatures for competition. This study explores evolutionary responses to thermal variability.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Theoretical Biology
Background:
- Ectotherms rely on thermal performance curves (TPCs) to define their response to temperature.
- Environmental variability, including stochastic fluctuations, can impact organismal performance and competitive interactions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how environmental noise influences the evolution of competition TPCs in ectotherms.
- To examine the effects of stochastic temperature fluctuations on thermal performance and competitive strategies.
Main Methods:
- Development of a Ricker competition model within an adaptive dynamics framework.
- Modeling competition TPCs using a beta probability density function.
- Analysis of environmental variability incorporating periodic and stochastic temperature fluctuations.
Main Results:
- Increasing thermal noise broadens competition TPCs and shifts the thermal optimum leftward, away from the environmental mean.
- Stochastic environments lead to right-skewed competition TPCs.
- Evolutionary bias towards cooler temperature optima for competition under moderate to high environmental noise.
Conclusions:
- Environmental noise drives evolutionary changes in thermal performance by modulating competitive interactions.
- Broader TPCs and cooler optima represent a conservative thermal strategy for competition under environmental uncertainty.
- The study highlights the adaptive significance of TPC evolution in response to fluctuating thermal environments.
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