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Modern spreadsheet software now supports dynamic array functions, enabling efficient Markov cohort models. This tutorial demonstrates building these models and conducting Monte Carlo simulations using single formulas, simplifying health technology assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • Health economics and outcomes research
  • Decision analytic modeling
  • Computational statistics

Background:

  • Decision analytic models for health technology assessment (HTA) are predominantly built using Microsoft Excel.
  • Traditional spreadsheet modeling approaches lack efficiency and are difficult to validate compared to R-based models.
  • Recent upgrades to Excel and Google Sheets include dynamic array functions, enabling advanced modeling techniques.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide a tutorial on leveraging dynamic array functions for efficient Markov cohort model construction in spreadsheets.
  • To present a novel method for Monte Carlo simulation within a single spreadsheet formula, eliminating the need for VBA macros.
  • To offer template formulas for common modeling tasks, including Markov traces and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs).

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing dynamic array functions in modern spreadsheet software (Excel, Google Sheets) for decision analytic modeling.
  • Implementing a novel single-formula approach for Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Developing and providing template formulas for Markov traces and CEAC probability tables.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated efficient construction of Markov cohort models using spreadsheet dynamic array functions.
  • Successfully implemented Monte Carlo simulations via a single-cell formula, bypassing VBA.
  • Provided reusable template formulas for key modeling tasks, simplifying model development and validation.

Conclusions:

  • New dynamic array functions modernize spreadsheet-based decision analytic modeling, enhancing efficiency and ease of validation.
  • These advancements simplify model construction, improve calculation speed, and reduce validation time for HTA.
  • The methods and templates facilitate teaching efficient decision analytic modeling to future students.