Testing the efficacy of a defocusing intervention to improve affective forecasting accuracy in younger and older...

Affective forecasting, the process of predicting future feelings, is key for decision-making, but prone to errors. Prior research suggests that age differences in forecasting accuracy vary by event valence such that older adults tend to be more accurate than younger adults when imagining how they will feel following positive events but less accurate when imagining how they will feel following negative events. This study tested whether a brief defocusing instruction could reduce affective forecasting errors and attenuate these age differences. In the week prior to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, younger (ages 18-35) and older (ages 58-79) U.S. voters (N = 670) predicted how they would feel in the week following the election under three scenarios: their preferred candidate winning, their preferred candidate losing, or the result being too close to call. Prior to making these forecasts, participants were randomly assigned to either a control or defocusing condition. Those in the defocusing condition were reminded to consider not only the election but also other daily life events that might shape their feelings. One week after the election, participants reported their actual post-election feelings. Results replicated prior findings: older adults made more accurate forecasts than younger adults when their preferred candidate won, but less accurate forecasts when their candidate lost. However, the defocusing instruction did not improve affective forecasting accuracy for either age group. This null finding suggests that simply prompting participants to consider daily life is insufficient to counter focalism, highlighting the need for more structured interventions in future research.