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Updated: Mar 27, 2026

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Pathways and geographical patterns of international shipping CO2 emissions in the future
Wen Yi1, Huan Liu1, Tingkun He1
1State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Abstract:
Carrying more than 80% of the international trade volume, international shipping has become a critical challenge for achieving climate goals, yet prognostic approaches investigating future international shipping emission pathways and geographical patterns remain limited. Here, by constructing the "SEIM-forecast" (Shipping Emission Inventory Model-forecast) framework, we explicitly linked future international shipping emissions to trade demand, fleet dynamics, and spatial patterns and realized a multidimensional projection of international shipping CO2 emissions under 24 trade-energy-technology scenarios. Overall, future international maritime trade demand growth alone is projected to increase international shipping CO2 emissions in 2050 by 81%-96.9% relative to 2021, with other conditions held constant. Based on the fleet dynamic simulation, aligning international shipping CO2 emissions with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2023 Strategy under increasing trade demand pressure requires advancing the full adoption of zero-carbon fuels for newly built vessels and accelerating fleet renewal. With the current average vessel lifespan of 25 years, full adoption of zero-carbon fuels for newly built vessels should occur by 2035. Extending full adoption to 2040 would require shortening the assumed lifespan of existing vessels by about five years (e.g., from 25 to 20 years). Evolving trade structures introduce strong spatial heterogeneity in future international shipping CO2 emission intensity, with increases in the Gulf of Thailand (49.3%, 2050 relative to 2021), Andaman Sea (37.7%), and Gulf of Aden (34.4%) driven by South-South trade, and decreases along traditional fossil-fuel transport corridors, including the western Europe-Middle East-East Asia and Gulf of Mexico routes.
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