Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2026

This study aimed to project cancer incidence and mortality for 2026 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.

Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2023 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, while cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2024 were acquired from the Ministry of Data and Statistics. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2026. A joinpoint regression model was applied to identify significant changes in trends, using only the most recent trend data for predictions.

A total of 308,876 new cancer cases and 86,317 cancer deaths are expected in Korea in 2026. The most commonly diagnosed cancer is projected to be thyroid cancer, followed by the colorectal, lung, breast, prostate and stomach cancers. These six cancers are expected to account for 63.5% of all newly diagnosed cancers. Lung cancer is expected to be the leading cause of cancer-related deaths, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, gallbladder, and stomach cancers, together comprising 65.9% of all cancer deaths.

Korea's cancer burden continues to shift toward malignancies prevalent in older populations. The sustained increase in prostate cancer among men and the rising mortality impact of pancreatic cancer reflect structural changes in the national cancer profile amid rapid population aging.