Trends in Stroke Burden and Rehabilitation Demand in Saudi Arabia, 1990-2021, with Projections to 2030: A National...

Background/Objectives: Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability in Saudi Arabia; however, national estimates of stroke-related rehabilitation needs remain limited. This study quantified temporal trends in stroke incidence, prevalence, premature mortality, and disability from 1990 to 2021. It also examined disparities in stroke-related disability by subtype, sex, and age in 2021 and projected rehabilitation demand to 2030 to inform health system planning under Vision 2030. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates for Saudi Arabia. Age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted for overall stroke and three subtypes: ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Temporal trends were evaluated using log-linear regression to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). YLDs were mapped to severity levels and four rehabilitation modalities, physiotherapy (PT), occupational therapy (OT), speech-language therapy (SLT), and multidisciplinary comprehensive rehabilitation (MCR), using utilization probabilities informed by the literature. Projections to 2030 incorporated national population forecasts and included 95% prediction intervals and sensitivity analyses. Results: From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized stroke incidence declined from 166.3 to 130.7 per 100,000 (-21.4%; AAPC, -0.86%, p = 0.004), prevalence from 982.4 to 965.2 per 100,000 (-1.8%; AAPC, -0.10%, p = 0.056), and YLL rates from 3209.0 to 1893.4 per 100,000 (-41.0%; AAPC, -1.76%, p < 0.001). In contrast, YLD rates declined modestly from 133.5 to 129.9 per 100,000 (-2.7%; AAPC, -0.13%; p = 0.032). Despite these reductions in age-standardized rates, absolute stroke-related YLDs more than tripled, increasing from approximately 10,900 (95% UI: 8100-13,900) in 1990 to 36,245 (95% UI: 26,600-46,100) in 2021, largely driven by population growth and aging. In 2021, ischemic stroke accounted for 71.1% of total YLDs, followed by ICH (20.3%) and SAH (8.5%). Among adults aged 15-49 years, females had higher hemorrhagic YLD rates than males, with particularly pronounced differences for SAH (female-to-male ratio, 1.5-1.7). By 2030, the projected YLD-equivalent workload, a standardized proxy measure of relative service demand rather than a direct headcount of required therapists, is expected to increase to 29,758 for PT, 21,809 for OT, 14,879 for SLT, and 15,083 for MCR. Sensitivity analyses showed that rehabilitation demand estimates were sensitive to assumptions regarding severity distribution, with a hemorrhagic-weighted scenario increasing projected MCR demand by 6.8%. Conclusions: The increasing absolute burden of stroke-related disability in Saudi Arabia, despite declining age-standardized rates and substantial reductions in premature mortality, highlights the necessity to expand rehabilitation capacity. Scaling community-based, outpatient, and telerehabilitation services in alignment with the Health Sector Transformation Program and integrating disability-informed planning into Vision 2030 should be prioritized.