The Trophic Cascade Effects of Marine Mesozooplankton: Theory, Dynamics, and Responses to Global Change

Marine mesozooplankton (0.2-20 mm), as a critical trophic link between primary producers and higher trophic levels, are pivotal drivers of trophic cascades regulating pelagic ecosystem structure and function. This review synthesizes recent advances in understanding mesozooplankton-mediated trophic cascades (MMTC), with a focus on selective feeding mechanisms, and presents an original, integrated quantitative framework that fills gaps in quantification and prediction of MMTC. This framework includes the following: a dual-pathway conceptual model distinguishing density-mediated and trait-mediated cascades; a three-level grazing rate correction model addressing long-standing underestimations of mesozooplankton direct grazing rate on phytoplankton; a comprehensive Cascade Strength Index for quantifying cascade intensity; an extended numerical model-NPMZ model (Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Microzooplankton-Mesozooplankton) for simulating MMTC dynamics and their biogeochemical impacts. The review further elucidates the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of MMTC and its implications for plankton community size structure and biological carbon pump efficiency. It also systematically assess the combined impacts of global change drivers (ocean warming, acidification, eutrophication) on MMTC and their ecological consequences. This review advances the theoretical framework of marine trophic cascade research by establishing a unified quantitative paradigm for MMTC and provides mechanistic insights and predictive tools for understanding how climate change modulates pelagic food web dynamics and marine ecosystem services. Moreover, the proposed integrated research paradigm combining molecular tools, multi-factor experiments, and high-resolution numerical modeling offers a critical roadmap for future MMTC research in the Anthropocene. This provides a scientific basis for the conservation and adaptive management of marine ecosystems under global change.