Trends in temperature-related deaths by educational attainment in the United States, 2010-2023

Heat and cold-related deaths are rising in the United States. Educational attainment provides a means for evaluating socioeconomic disparities.

Using United States national mortality data (2010-2023), we identified all heat and cold-related deaths, among adults ≥25 years old. Educational attainment was categorized as high school or less, at least some college, or more than college. Population information was obtained from the American Community Survey and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 adults were calculated.

Heat and cold-related mortality rates were greatest among the least educated group and increased the fastest throughout the study period. Among those with a high school education or less, heat AAMR increased from 0.5 (95% CI 0.5, 0.6) to 1.8 (95% CI 1.7, 1.9) and cold AAMR from 1.0 (95% CI 1.0, 1.1) to 1.8 (95% CI 1.7, 1.9). Among the highest educated group, heat AAMR increased from 0.1 (95% CI 0.1, 0.2) to 0.2 (95% CI 0.2, 0.3) while cold AAMR was 0.4 (95% CI 0.3, 0.5) in 2010 and 0.3 (0.3, 0.4) in 2023. Findings were consistent across sub-groups of sex, region, and race/ethnicity.

Temperature-related deaths disproportionately impacted Americans with lower educational attainment and disparities widened over the study period.