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Updated: Apr 1, 2026

Investigating the Relationship between Sea Surface Chlorophyll and Major Features of the South China Sea with Satellite Information
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Global Patterns and Drivers of Recent Decoupling Between Extratropical Spring Phenology and Temperature.

Ziyu Lu1, Ming Shao1, Jiayan Li1

  • 1School of Landscape Architecture, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China.

Global Change Biology
|March 31, 2026
PubMed
Summary

Spring vegetation green-up (GSOS) is increasingly lagging behind the thermal growing season (TSOS) across extratropical biomes. This phenological mismatch is accelerating, driven by biome-specific responses to non-thermal factors like precipitation and radiation.

Keywords:
chilling requirementdecouplingphenologyspring mismatchthermal growing seasonvegetation green‐up

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Science
  • Remote Sensing

Background:

  • Spring phenology and its relationship with thermal cues are critical for ecosystem function.
  • The decoupling of vegetation green-up from temperature signals across diverse biomes is not well understood.
  • Understanding phenological shifts is vital for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the magnitude and trends of phenological mismatch (ΔSOS) between vegetation green-up onset (GSOS) and thermal growing season onset (TSOS) across extratropical biomes.
  • To identify the key drivers influencing the decoupling of GSOS from TSOS.
  • To investigate biome-specific pathways of phenological change and their implications for climate-biosphere interactions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized satellite data spanning from 1982 to 2021 to analyze phenological trends.
  • Quantified the onset of vegetation green-up (GSOS) and thermal growing season onset (TSOS).
  • Analyzed the relationship between phenological shifts and climatic variables including temperature, shortwave radiation, and precipitation, considering biome-specific characteristics.

Main Results:

  • The onset of vegetation green-up (GSOS) generally lags behind the thermal growing season onset (TSOS).
  • This phenological mismatch (ΔSOS) has significantly increased by 1.51 days per decade since 1996, particularly in shrublands and grasslands.
  • Phenological decoupling is biome-dependent: warm-dry grasslands and shrublands show increasing mismatch due to moisture limitation, while temperate forests exhibit dampened mismatch due to warming and increased radiation.

Conclusions:

  • Phenology-temperature decoupling is accelerating but heterogeneous across biomes, with significant implications for ecosystem synchrony and carbon cycling.
  • Non-thermal drivers, such as precipitation and radiation, play a crucial role in modulating phenological responses, especially in moisture-limited ecosystems.
  • Incorporating biome-specific controls and non-thermal drivers into Earth system models is essential for accurately predicting future climate-biosphere interactions.