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Rising heavy precipitation extremes in Central European river basins under a high emission scenario
Mohammad Reza Eini1,2, Haniyeh Salmani3,4, Pouya Ghezelayagh5
1Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany. mohammad_eini@sggw.edu.pl.
Scientific Reports
|April 1, 2026
Summary
Extreme precipitation events are increasing in Central Europe's Vistula and Oder basins. This trend, particularly for heavy rainfall days and intensity, necessitates urgent adaptation for flood risk and water management.
Area of Science:
- Climatology and Hydrology
- Extreme Weather Event Analysis
- Climate Change Impact Assessment
Background:
- Central Europe's Vistula and Oder river basins face increasing risks from extreme precipitation.
- Understanding historical trends and future projections of these events is crucial for regional adaptation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess historical trends and project future changes in extreme precipitation events in the Vistula and Oder basins.
- To analyze changes in frequency, intensity, and contribution of heavy precipitation events using climate indices.
- To investigate spatial patterns and temporal changes in extreme precipitation under a high-emission scenario.
Main Methods:
- Utilized bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario.
- Applied Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) recommended climate indices.
- Employed Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests for statistical significance of trends.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated a statistically significant increase in heavy rainfall days (R10mm, R20mm) and intensity (Rx1day, Rx5day).
- Observed a significant rise in the contribution of extreme precipitation to total rainfall (R95pTOT, R99pTOT).
- Identified southern mountainous areas as experiencing the most pronounced changes, with broad regional increases projected.
Conclusions:
- Projected intensification of extreme rainfall events poses significant risks for flood management and water resources in Central Europe.
- Less clear trends were observed for consecutive dry and wet days (CDD, CWD).
- Urgent proactive adaptation measures are needed to enhance resilience against climate-induced precipitation extremes.
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