Selecting CMIP6 precipitation models by integrating relative importance metrics, compromise programming index, and
Farnaz Ershadfath1, Rouhollah Davarpanah2, Zulfaqar Sa'adi3
1Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, 65178-38695, Iran.
The Science of the Total Environment
|November 13, 2025
Summary
This study ranks climate models for Iran
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Accurate climate projections are vital for water resource management.
- General Circulation Models (GCMs) require rigorous assessment for reliable future climate predictions.
- Advanced GCM ranking methods are needed for regional applications.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a novel framework for ranking GCMs for precipitation projection in Iran.
- To identify the most suitable CMIP6 GCMs for assessing spatiotemporal precipitation changes.
- To project future precipitation patterns under different climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- A novel framework combining Relative Importance Metrics (RIMs), Compromise Programming Index (CPI), and Jenks Optimized Classification (JOC) was developed.
- 14 CMIP6 GCMs were evaluated using ERA5 and CHIRPS data (1985-2014).
- The top-ranked MPI-ESM1-2-LR model was bias-corrected and used for future precipitation projections (2025-2084) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
Main Results:
- MPI-ESM1-2-LR was identified as the top-ranked GCM for Iran.
- Near-future projections show mixed precipitation changes, while far-future projections indicate significant declines under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.
- Over 90% of Iran faces water scarcity risks in the far future, with substantial precipitation reductions from February to September.
Conclusions:
- The novel ranking framework effectively identifies suitable GCMs for regional climate impact studies.
- Future climate projections highlight significant water scarcity risks for Iran, particularly in the long term.
- Targeted water management strategies are crucial to mitigate the projected impacts of reduced precipitation.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
01:17Precipitation and Co-precipitation
4.0K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
4.0K
01:12Precipitation Processes
4.7K
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
4.7K
01:03Precipitation Gravimetry
13.4K
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
13.4K
01:26Pharmacokinetic Models: Comparison and Selection Criterion
319
Physiological and compartmental models are valuable tools used in studying biological systems. These models rely on differential equations to maintain mass balance within the system, ensuring an accurate representation of the dynamic processes at play.
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
319
03:11Precipitation of Ions
29.8K
Predicting Precipitation
The equation that describes the equilibrium between solid calcium carbonate and its solvated ions is:
The equation that describes the equilibrium between solid calcium carbonate and its solvated ions is:
29.8K
01:19Precipitation Titration: Endpoint Detection Methods
4.7K
In argentometric precipitation titrations, endpoints can be detected visually by the Mohr, Volhard, and Fajans methods. In the Mohr method, adding a soluble chromate indicator gives an initial yellow color to the analyte solution. As the titrant is added, the first excess of silver ions forms a red silver chromate precipitate, marking the endpoint. The solution pH should be maintained at about 8 by adding solid CaCO3.
In the Volhard method, a standard excess of AgNO3 is first added to the...
In the Volhard method, a standard excess of AgNO3 is first added to the...
4.7K