Burden of Ovarian Cancer in China Attributable to Asbestos Exposure During 1990-2021 and the Projections Through 2050

Ovarian cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality among women globally. Occupational asbestos exposure is a well-established risk factor. This study aimed to evaluate and project the burden of ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in China through 2050.

Data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ovarian cancer due to asbestos exposure were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. Temporal trends in age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort model was applied to disentangle the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Future disease burden through 2050 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

In 2021, asbestos-related ovarian cancer resulted in 357 deaths and 7,621 DALYs in China, accounting for 1.43% and 1.02% of the total ovarian cancer burden, respectively. The burden was highest among individuals aged 70-74 years. Joinpoint analysis identified peaks in the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates around 2011. The age-period-cohort model revealed that rates increased with age. Projections indicate that by 2050, the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates will reach 0.0266 and 0.735 per 100,000, while the deaths and DALYs show an upward trend.

The burden of ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in China has increased substantially and is projected to continue rising through 2050. These findings underscore the imperative for a complete ban on asbestos production and consumption in China.