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Mitigating Systemic Risks in Aging Services: An Evolutionary Game Analysis of Fiscal Policy, Service Quality, and
Xiaohong Shen1, Xin Zhang2, Han Wang3
1School of International Education and Healthcare, Jiaxing Nanyang Polytechnic Institute, Jiaxing, People's Republic of China.
Risk Management and Healthcare Policy
|April 6, 2026
Summary
Sustainable aging care requires dynamic incentives, not just funding. Aligning workforce development with service quality and coordinating education, incentives, and regulation is key to mitigating risks and ensuring equitable resource allocation.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Public Health Policy
- Health Economics
Background:
- Population aging presents significant fiscal and operational challenges to public health and long-term care systems.
- Growing demand and workforce shortages threaten the stability of aging care services.
- Effective interaction between government, service institutions, and education is crucial for sustainable provision.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an evolutionary game model integrating talent supply dynamics into risk governance for aging care systems.
- To analyze the impact of policy scenarios on system stability, workforce development, and fiscal sustainability.
- To identify optimal strategies for ensuring the long-term viability of aging care services.
Main Methods:
- A tripartite evolutionary game model was developed to link workforce development, institutional performance, and fiscal sustainability.
- MATLAB simulations were used to examine system stability and evolutionary trajectories.
- Multiple policy scenarios, including subsidies, incentives, and education reform, were analyzed.
Main Results:
- Over-reliance on government subsidies can increase long-term fiscal burdens and reduce system resilience.
- Market-oriented self-organization enhances service quality and decreases public funding dependency.
- A feedback loop exists between institutional demand and educational reform; workforce training reduces costs, but inadequate practical education creates bottlenecks.
Conclusions:
- System sustainability hinges on dynamic incentives aligning workforce development with service quality, rather than static fiscal increases.
- Coordinated efforts in education, performance incentives, and regulation can mitigate market failures and improve resource allocation.
- Strategic integration of educational reform, workforce incentives, and regulatory oversight is essential for resilient aging care systems.
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