Predictive Value of Insertion/Deletion Rate in Patients With Gastric Cancer Treated With Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy

Immune checkpoint inhibitor plus chemotherapy is the standard first-line treatment for advanced gastric cancer; however, predictive biomarkers for optimal patient selection remain unsatisfactory. This study was aimed at evaluating the predictive value of tumor mutational burden (TMB) and insertion/deletion (Indel) rate in patients with gastric cancer treated with nivolumab plus chemotherapy.

This retrospective study included 132 patients with gastric cancer treated with first-line nivolumab plus chemotherapy and 185 patients treated with chemotherapy alone, all of whom had next-generation sequencing data available. The TMB and Indel cut-offs were set at 15.63 mutations per megabase and 18.19%, respectively, as determined based on their ability to best distinguish progression-free survival (PFS) among the patients who received nivolumab plus chemotherapy.

PFS was favorable for nivolumab and chemotherapy than for chemotherapy alone in both the high and low TMB groups; nevertheless, survival benefits were observed only in the high Indel group. Among the subgroups defined based on both TMB and Indel rates, the high TMB and high Indel rate subgroup showed the greatest benefit from nivolumab plus chemotherapy compared with that from chemotherapy alone. The benefit of this subgroup remained significant in patients with proficient mismatch repair (MMR) tumors, whose survival outcomes were comparable to those of patients with deficient MMR tumors. Among patients treated with nivolumab plus chemotherapy, high TMB and Indel rate were independently associated with favorable survival outcomes.

Thus, Indel rate, particularly in combination with TMB, may be a promising predictive biomarker for gastric cancer. However, further validation of their predictive value is warranted.