Modeling the Public Health Impact of Introducing 4CMenB Vaccination for Infants in the Brazilian National

Thatiana Pinto1, Zeki Kocaata2, Ana Medina3

  • 1GSK, Wavre, Belgium. thatiana.x.pinto@gsk.com.

Abstract

Insights

Introducing routine infant vaccination with the four-component meningococcal B vaccine (4CMenB) in Brazil could significantly reduce invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) cases and deaths across all age groups. This strategy is projected to avert over 63,000 IMD cases and 11,000 deaths.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Vaccinology

Background:

  • Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by serogroup B (MenB) poses a significant threat, especially to infants in Brazil, where it is endemic.
  • The four-component MenB vaccine (4CMenB) offers potential cross-protection against other serogroups and is approved for individuals aged 2 months to 50 years.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the public health impact of introducing routine infant vaccination with the 4CMenB vaccine in Brazil.
  • To model the reduction in IMD incidence, morbidity, and mortality across all age groups.

Main Methods:

  • A static, multigenerational, multicohort model using a discrete-time Markov approach over a 100-year horizon.
  • Incorporation of vaccine effectiveness, coverage, waning rates, and adjusted incidence data (2007-2023, excluding COVID-19).
  • Calculation of IMD-related deaths based on age-specific case fatality rates.

Main Results:

  • Infant 4CMenB vaccination is projected to avert 63,038 IMD cases (21% reduction) and 11,301 deaths (20% reduction) in all age groups, assuming 69% cross-protection against MenW.
  • A significant reduction of 21,408 MenB cases (43%) and 3335 deaths (43%) is predicted in infants (<1 year).

Conclusions:

  • Routine infant 4CMenB immunization in Brazil can substantially decrease IMD burden, improving long-term health outcomes.
  • This preventive measure reinforces the national immunization program's potential impact on reducing disease morbidity and mortality.

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