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Attributing 2019-2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations
Megan He1, Daniel J Jacob1, Lucas A Estrada1
1School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Science Advances
|April 10, 2026
Summary
Atmospheric methane levels rose due to a mix of factors including increasing emissions from livestock and waste, and decreasing OH concentrations. Recent trends show a weaker rise driven by increasing OH concentrations.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric chemistry and climate science
- Environmental monitoring and remote sensing
Background:
- Atmospheric methane concentrations have risen by 0.7% annually from 2019-2024.
- The precise drivers of this methane increase remain unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify annual mean methane emissions and hemispheric OH concentrations from 2019-2024.
- To identify the key factors contributing to the observed rise in atmospheric methane.
Main Methods:
- Analytical inversion of bias-corrected TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations.
- Quantification of methane emissions and OH concentrations over a five-year period.
Main Results:
- The methane rise is attributed to approaching steady state (59%), increasing emissions (25%), and decreasing OH concentrations (16%).
- Global methane emissions fluctuated, with increases from livestock and waste offsetting decreases from oil/gas and rice.
- East Africa and South America were primary contributors to emission increases.
Conclusions:
- The recent slowdown in methane rise (2022-2024) is primarily due to increasing OH concentrations.
- Understanding regional emission changes and atmospheric sink dynamics is crucial for methane mitigation strategies.
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