Predictive Value of the Triglyceride-Glucose Index for Metabolic Syndrome in Adults from Southeastern Mexico

The clinical significance of metabolic syndrome (MetS) stems from its strong association with the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), which are the top causes of death worldwide. The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has been proposed as a simple diagnostic tool; however, its predictive value for MetS has not been evaluated in southeastern Mexico. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of the TyG index for MetS in adults from Yucatán.

A cross-sectional study was conducted on 250 adults (77 men, 173 women) attending the Regional High Specialty Hospital of the Yucatan Peninsula, IMSS-Bienestar. Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected under standardized procedures. The TyG index was calculated as ln ([fasting triglycerides × fasting glucose]/2). Logistic regression and ROC curve analyses were performed to evaluate the discriminatory capacity of the TyG index, adjusted for sex and age.

Higher TyG index quartiles were associated with increased age, waist circumference, blood pressure, and prevalence of MetS (P < 0.05). The TyG index showed a positive trend with the number of MetS components (P < 0.001). The area under the curve for TyG was 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.85, p < 0.001), improving to 0.83 after adjustment for sex and age, with 72% sensitivity and 80% specificity.

The TyG index demonstrated strong predictive and discriminative ability for MetS and, as a simple, cost-effective measure derived from routine laboratory tests, represents a practical screening tool for clinicians in southeastern Mexico.