Long-term variability in the synergies and trade-offs among multiple ecosystem services within a heavily disturbed...

Marine fishery ecosystems can provide humans with a variety of ecosystem services (ESs). However, long-term variations in multiple ESs and the synergistic relationships or trade-offs among them remain insufficiently understood, particularly in ecosystems under strong anthropogenic disturbances. This study aimed to quantify the interannual variations of multiple ESs and to identify synergies and trade-offs of ESs in different phases from 1960 to 2019 in the Yellow Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (YSLME), a heavily impacted marine ecosystem characterized by intensive fishing activities. The provisioning services showed upward trends, whereas the regulating services and supporting services generally declined over the years. The dynamic factor analysis (DFA) identified three primary temporal trends, indicating marked temporal instability in ESs relationships. To further assess temporal variability in ES relationships, a time-constrained agglomerative (TCA) clustering method was applied to divide the entire study period into distinct phases characterized by similar patterns of interactions. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the relationships between provisioning services and biodiversity indices exhibited temporal variations, underscoring the substantial impact of human pressure on the fishery ecosystem. Overall, the findings reveal temporal heterogeneity in ESs and demonstrate that the intensity of human activities and policy interventions can significantly influence the capacity of the fishery ecosystem to provide services.